By: Malcolm S. McNeil
Partner, ArentFox Schiff
Attorney CA and Washington DC
Well, the swirl of speculation ended on Sunday when Pres. Biden announced on social media that he would not seek reelection in November. At the same time, he declared he would remain president for the remainder of his term which will end in January, 2025. In some circles in the Democratic Party, this was a relief but those concerns pivoted to the primary question: who would be Biden’s successor?, Harris is the presumptive nominee by virtue of her position as VP. However, Harris has had 3 1/2 years to distinguish herself as VP and remarkably did not do so, whether willingly or unwillingly. So a Harris candidacy carries with it the legacy of the Biden administration, whether good or bad. The Biden campaign has made the election, not a referendum on Biden’s record, but rather the main defense against a Trump presidency which is characterized as a “threat to democracy.” America is divided as we all know. But the Democratic Party itself is divided among the far left candidates, the establishment Democrats including the entertainment types who stand steadily in line to attack the Trump candidacy. It can be easily determined that whoever the Democrats run, there will be voters that will look for that candidate simply because it is anti-Trump. The Democrats have now shed the main attack on Biden which was that he is too old and suffering from dementia. Not to mention the intense dislike for Biden in some circles even within the party. That was seen when Obama issued his statement which did not include an immediate Harris endorsement. To do so would’ve been a tacit endorsement of the entire Biden Harris presidency. So the Obama endorsement will have to wait…..
For what, you may ask?
Obama remains the darling of the party and therefore many will wait for his input before making a choice. There are other Democratic candidates that are rising and looking for their turn. The obvious ones are Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom. But the argument against them is that they want to hold back and wait until 2028.
The real question is can a candidate put together a credible campaign between now and November. The Democratic convention is in August but I predict it will be less raucous than the pundits are predicting. Over the next 2 1/2 weeks, the party will coalesce perhaps around Harris and another candidate. They would then join together and be the Democratic ticket for November.
But the Democrats have a bigger fish to fry. Whomever takes the stage has to deal with the momentum of the Trump candidacy which was buoyed by the assassination attempt, the successful Republican National Convention and its ensuing enthusiasm, and the selection of JD Vance, a younger vibrant vice presidential candidate, who was a foe of Trump at one time. This balances against the mantra of Trump being a threat to democracy.
It remains a question whether or not Biden’s endorsement of Harris is a good or bad thing. It depends on your political perspective. If you like Biden, you will look forward to “four more years.” If you don’t like Biden, you will see Harris as an extension of failed policies.
The Democrats need more than simply an anti-Trump platform to sway those “undecideds.” The Democratic nominee will need to hit the stump and propose from the Biden administration’s decisions.
Is there enough time? The challenge for Harris is that her selection will inevitably mean status quo, at least in the near term, for staffing, cabinet members and policymaking. She carries the legacy of that policymaking. Harris is not distinguish yourself with their own unique brand of policymaking and has a major negative in failing to control immigration despite her appointment as the “border czar.”
The issues that are important to all Americans, no matter where you come from and no matter what your origins, are economic opportunity, the economy itself, national security, crime, energy independence, and education. The voters will look first to these issues and solutions before they drill down on Democratic issues such as abortion, gun control and DE.
At the moment, it does seem like the party will lean in on a Harris candidacy in order to avoid the downside to a competitive contest. An actual competitive contest is what is intimated in Obama’s message. There are many Democrats would like to have a choice other than an anointed candidate.
It is apparent to most people that stepping over Harris for another candidates would cause all kinds of internal additional dissension within the Democratic Party.
So, doing the “crystal ball “ analysis, the line of least resistance will be for the Democrats to coalesce around Harris, allow the next two weeks to play out as she selects as a vice presidential running mate and team up to continue with hopefully a brand-new message, other than simply don’t vote for Trump.
That message should include enthusiasm and optimism.
MSM 7/22/24
